| Chapter 1: | The Evolution of Mobile Internet Communications |
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One anonymous survey participant suggested that texting by phone is also a likely way communication will continue to improve in developing countries: “Tools which take SMS/texting to another level will create additional ways to connect, communicate, and collaborate cheaply before the Internet in the developing world.”
Some Experts Express Doubts About
Interoperability and Open Networks
Some of those who chose to mostly agree with this scenario did so while expressing reservations about parts of it. A number of them suggested that governments and/or corporations concerned with retaining or gaining more control over use of the Internet might limit some types of connection in certain parts of the world, and others projected a potential lack of universal standards and protocols in a world of changing technology.
An anonymous respondent noted, “The pace at which affordable access will reach the poorest majority of the world's population is overestimated. See what happens with basic commodities such as tap water. Industry will continue targeting the richest segment with fancy ‘innovations.’” Another respondent wrote, “If the Internet doesn’t evolve by then, the Internet on cell phones will remain limited to the wealthiest nations.” And another wrote, “It's difficult to imagine mobile telephony standards evolving to the point where international roaming is effortless. The business and regulatory drivers would seem to prevent this.”
Another anonymous respondent wrote that interoperability and portability as proposed by the scenario will only take place outside of the United States due to “vested interests of competing telecom/Net firms…This will put the U.S. as a whole at risk of lagging seriously behind the rest of the world in technology innovation.”
Michael Zimmer, resident fellow at the Information Society Project at Yale Law School, wrote, “I agree almost entirely with this prediction…My only hesitation is whether there will be universal standards and protocols accepted by most operators internationally,